By Jeff Liu

Edited by Anuva Sharma and James Yeretsian

It has been nearly two years since Russia launched its illegal invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite initial expectations that Russia would completely take over Ukraine when the invasion first started, Ukrainian forces have successfully defended themselves and even reclaimed some of their territory. Although the initial consensus across Canada was in favour of supporting Ukraine in its war efforts, Canadians have become less enthusiastic in their support as the war dragged on. According to an Angus Reid poll released in February 2023, most Canadians say Canada is either giving Ukraine the right amount of general support or not enough. However, this same poll shows that in February 2023, 17% of people thought that Canada was giving Ukraine too much support, while 21% said they did not know, up from 13% in May 2022 for both answers.

However, concerns that we are spending too much money are overstated. According to the 2022-2023 annual financial report, the Government of Canada spent at least $8.9 billion on Ukraine through military, humanitarian, financial, and other types of commitments. While $8.9 billion may seem large, it is a small fraction of the Canadian budget. Total federal expenses for 2022-2023 were $483.1 billion, making the total amount of aid spent on supporting Ukraine 1.8% of total federal expenditures. Additionally, more than half of the total commitments spent for that fiscal year were in the form of loans to the Ukrainian government, meaning Canada will get the loaned money back with interest. From the start of the war to November 2023, the Canadian Government’s total bilateral assistance to Ukraine comprised only 0.32% of our GDP. Given these considerations, the amount of money Canada has committed to Ukraine has been a relatively small cost overall.

A common sentiment from those who oppose sending aid to Ukraine is that the war is of no concern to Canada. According to an Ipsos poll conducted in February 2023, a quarter of Canadians believe that “the war in Ukraine is none of our business.” On the contrary, the war in Ukraine is our business as it concerns Canada’s security interests. If Russia were to win the war, they may feel further emboldened to invade other countries as well given their expansionist tendencies. They have occupied territory from Moldova since 1992, occupied territories from Georgia since 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014, and taken over more Ukrainian territory since its full-scale invasion in 2022. If Russia were to invade a NATO country, like Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia, this would trigger Article 5 of NATO, compelling Canada to become involved in a war against Russia. Weakening Russia through Ukraine deters them from invading other European countries and helps maintain the security of our allies in Europe, preventing any future conflicts for Canada to involve itself in.

Moreover, Canada stands to benefit economically from preventing Russia from winning the war. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, commodity prices surged. Both Russia and Ukraine supplied a quarter of the world’s wheat exports. In Canada, the year-over-year inflation rate in March 2022 for some wheat products was more than double its inflation rate in the previous month when the invasion started. The invasion also resulted in uncertainty in the supply of oil, resulting in consumers in Canada paying 39.8% more for gasoline on a year-over-year basis in March 2022, compared to the 6.7% year-over-year general inflation rate for that same month. Given Russia’s expansionist tendencies, we will likely experience more supply shocks in the future if they were to invade another country. Providing aid to Ukraine helps promote economic stability both there and here in Canada.

There are plenty of additional justifications for why Canada should continue to aid Ukraine. Helping them in their fight against Russia helps promote a rules-based international order, improves Canada’s reputation on the world stage, fosters strong Canadian-Ukrainian relations, and protects Ukrainians from being killed and ruled over by an authoritarian regime. As a result, Canada should not waiver in its support for Ukraine as the war continues.

Jeff Liu is a Master of Public Policy candidate at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. He obtained his undergraduate degree from the University of Toronto Scarborough in 2021 with a double major in International Development Studies and Physics. His research interests include international security, economics, the environment, and public health policy.